The Gryphons and Lancers played at opposite ends of the performance spectrum on Labour Day. That was also true of their preseason game performances. While Guelph was getting shellacked at Mac, Windsor laid an epic beating on uOttawa. The Windsor website has this story on the game – Lancers stampede over Gee Gees 63-18 in season opener. A week prior the Lancers were embarassed by a very good U de Montreal team, gaining only 39 yards of net offense in the exhibition game. Unfortunately, Guelph did things in the opposite order. A solid effort against the Saskatchewan Huskies was followed by a clunker at McMaster to open the regular season.
So the important question for both squads – which team will show up? Statistically, the idea of central tendency suggests that in spite of extreme results, future results will tend to return to the mean. Essentially, Windsor won’t score 63 points every week, nor will Guelph be limited to an average of 9 points per game. I do expect this to be a very competitive game.
Previous four meetings: Guelph is 3-1 against Windsor since 2007. The lone loss was last season in Windsor. None of the games have been particularly close. I’m not sure how it works out this way but Guelph is headed back to Windsor for the fourth time in the last five meetings with the Lancers.
2011 – 41-21 Windsor victory
2010 – 41-14 Guelph
2009 – did not play
2008 – 34-8 Guelph
2007 – 36-10 Guelph
Last Season: Guelph headed to Windsor with a disappointing 1-3 record. Mid-week it was announced that Guelph would start freshman QB Jazz Lindsey. The Lancers on the other hand were sporting a surprising 3-1 record led by sophomore QB Austin Kennedy. Kennedy had started most of his freshman season after the Windsor starter was lost to injury. Guelph also shuffled their O-line for the Windsor game. In spite of a 20-point loss I thought I detected signs of positive things in the game and wrote about them here. And, yes, there were some questionable penalty calls in the game that favoured the home team but that is the norm in Windsor.
What to expect from Windsor: QB Kennedy is the key for the Lancers. He has a very good receiver in 5th yr Jordan Brescacin [Ticat training camp for 2 months]. The Lancers may not have much of a running game except for the scrambling of Kennedy. The strength of the D is the defensive backs. The D-line loses an All Cdn DT in Seamus Postuma.
In fact, there are several things I like about this match-up. First off, I believe Guelph can compete with Windsor along the line of scrimmage. If anything I give Guelph an edge in that area. Much like Guelph teams of 2007-09 the Lancers strength is their skill position players.
Keys to winning: 1) Keep Kennedy from going off for a huge night; 2) Offense needs to generate some sustained drives and convert on opportunities; 3) Guelph needs to play physically like they did in Saskatoon and win the battles up front.