Windsor game preview

The Gryphons and Lancers played at opposite ends of the performance spectrum on Labour Day. That was also true of their preseason game performances. While Guelph was getting shellacked at Mac, Windsor laid an epic beating on uOttawa. The Windsor website has this story on the game – Lancers stampede over Gee Gees 63-18 in season opener. A week prior the Lancers were embarassed by a very good U de Montreal team, gaining only 39 yards of net offense in the exhibition game. Unfortunately, Guelph did things in the opposite order. A solid effort against the Saskatchewan Huskies was followed by a clunker at McMaster to open the regular season.

So the important question for both squads – which team will show up? Statistically, the idea of central tendency suggests that in spite of extreme results, future results will tend to return to the mean. Essentially, Windsor won’t score 63 points every week, nor will Guelph be limited to an average of 9 points per game. I do expect this to be a very competitive game.

Previous four meetings: Guelph is 3-1 against Windsor since 2007. The lone loss was last season in Windsor. None of the games have been particularly close. I’m not sure how it works out this way but Guelph is headed back to Windsor for the fourth time in the last five meetings with the Lancers.

2011 – 41-21 Windsor victory
2010 – 41-14 Guelph
2009 – did not play
2008 – 34-8 Guelph
2007 – 36-10 Guelph

Last Season: Guelph headed to Windsor with a disappointing 1-3 record. Mid-week it was announced that Guelph would start freshman QB Jazz Lindsey. The Lancers on the other hand were sporting a surprising 3-1 record led by sophomore QB Austin Kennedy. Kennedy had started most of his freshman season after the Windsor starter was lost to injury. Guelph also shuffled their O-line for the Windsor game. In spite of a 20-point loss I thought I detected signs of positive things in the game and wrote about them here. And, yes, there were some questionable penalty calls in the game that favoured the home team but that is the norm in Windsor.

What to expect from Windsor: QB Kennedy is the key for the Lancers. He has a very good receiver in 5th yr Jordan Brescacin [Ticat training camp for 2 months]. The Lancers may not have much of a running game except for the scrambling of Kennedy. The strength of the D is the defensive backs. The D-line loses an All Cdn DT in Seamus Postuma.

In fact, there are several things I like about this match-up. First off, I believe Guelph can compete with Windsor along the line of scrimmage. If anything I give Guelph an edge in that area. Much like Guelph teams of 2007-09 the Lancers strength is their skill position players.

Keys to winning: 1) Keep Kennedy from going off for a huge night; 2) Offense needs to generate some sustained drives and convert on opportunities; 3) Guelph needs to play physically like they did in Saskatoon and win the battles up front.

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12 Responses to Windsor game preview

  1. Mark Lancer says:

    ” The Lancers may not have much of a running game except for the scrambling of Kennedy”

    I wouldn’t be so sure of that Peter. With the aerial attack we have, running the ball might be a moot point at least until the weather is a factor. I actually think we have have some decent ball carriers, players like Mitch Dender, Jamal Darious and Gilbert Stewart. If a team concentrates on dropping back, we may just surprise you tonight with a solid ground attack. I’m not convinced that your secondary can stop us. Windsor might just have (it’s early I agree) one of the most potent aerial attacks seen in OUA history. I’ll say Windsor by 14-20 tonight.

  2. Graham says:

    will the game be streamed online?

  3. OB says:

    HUGE WIN! Great road victory against a nationally ranked squad.

  4. Mark Lancer says:

    Credit to Guelph. Wasnt expecting that. They basically kicked our butts. No excuses. Very, very disappointing that we didnt get one td.

  5. Dave says:

    Not only that Mark but claiming to have one of the most potent aerial attacks in OUA history after one game to a porous secondary is a bit much. Recent history has Quinlan, Sinopoli, Brannigan, Faulds, Dunk, Sacobie….going back a bit farther Archibald, Chapdelaine, way back to the Denison days?

  6. Mark Lancer says:

    No kidding…..foot in mouth insert. My mistake was thinking that was a decent Ottawa team. The fact is, that may be one of the worst Gee Gee teams ever.

    Coach Damore said it best on the post game tv show….” we are not as good as people think we are”…..at least not right now is my perception of his words. He went on to say that there are another 6 games….so “lots to work on”.

    • Marcus says:

      Dont be too hard on Windsor Mark. Windsor made too many mistakes and Guelph just got lucky and was able to capitalize on them. When Windsor works out some of the kinks look out! The Guelph backs must have been up all night watching Windsors game film.
      If OB thinks this is a “HUGE” win he needs a reality check.

      • It was at least a VERY BIG win Marcus. Windsor was a team we needed to beat in order to have a shot at home playoff game. As I’ve said before the big games for Guelph this season are Windsor, Laurier, Western & Queen’s. McMaster & Windsor were supposed to be our toughest road games and our toughest back-to-back games. We’re 1-1 in those games.

  7. Mark Lancer says:

    It was a big win for Guelph. They are virtually a lock for 5-3 now. While Windsor’s fate is more than likely to be 4-4. According to my projections, 5th place Windsor will travel to Guelph for a first round re-match.

    • One benefit of that is you’ll get to see our new field and “ginormous” video scoreboard. It would be a compelling choice for TV coverage. I just hope that we avoid uOttawa’s 2011 fate in a rematch vs your team.

  8. Mark Lancer says:

    I still have last years game on my dvr. I had to remind myself that the score was 34-14 when Guelph was driving inside the red zone. A subsequent pick 6 ended the game. Had Guelph scored that might have been a much tighter game. If these teams meet again in the playoffs, it could be a very tight game. It will be interesting to see which team progresses more during the next 7 or so games.

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